I was discussing the recent election results with a friend and he reminded me of an old Saturday Night Live skit that asked the question, Quien es mas macho? My answer after the Tuesday March 5th primary election is Senior Abbott es lo mas macho.
You can question the methods used, where the money came from, and the long-term ramifications, but you cannot question the results.
For most of our history we have had 1 term Speakers of the Texas House. Going back to reconstruction, the office was held by one man for a single term with a few exceptions. Ruben Senterfit in the early 50s served 2 terms, Waggoner Carr in the late 50s served 2 terms. Ben Barnes and Gus Mutscher both served 2 terms in the late 60s and early 70s. After Price Daniel Jr.’s 1 term, Billy Clayton began the trend of longer term Speakers lasting 4 terms, Gib Lewis and Pete Laney both served 5 terms as Speaker. Tom Craddick served 3 terms and Joe Straus 5. Recently Dennis Bonnen served 1 term (shortened by scandal) and now we find ourselves at the end of Dade Phelan’s 2nd term. Speaker Craddick’s run was shortened by a Republican revolt in the House which brought his rein to an unexpected end which is where we might find ourselves once again.
To the best of my recollection, the only Speaker to lose his primary election was Rayford Price in 1972. Rayford replaced Gus Mutscher who got caught up in the Sharpstown scandal along with Ben Barnes and Governor Preston Smith, although Gus was the only person who was convicted and sentenced (later overturned on appeal).
Which brings us to the recent election results. Speaker of the House Dade Phelan came in 2nd in his primary election to political novice David Covey. The runoff for this and the other still undecided contested primary elections is on May 28th. All of which begs the question:
Why would anyone vote against arguably the 2nd or 3rd most powerful elected official in state government. This position of power obviously benefits the people of House District 21 and in this case his replacement would NOT be in a similar position of influence. That one is a head scratcher, if for no other reason than a selfish one for the people that live in District 21.
The amount of money necessary to force that outcome must be truly significant, the actual amounts we may never know. Regardless, a significant number of residents believe they would be better off with someone who is not only inexperienced in state government, but also will not hold any recognizable position of influence. If the Speaker prevails, (no guarantee there) he will probably face noticeable headwinds in seeking reelection as Speaker. How this will impact those wishing to participate during the upcoming legislative session remains to be seen, but business as usual (whatever that means) will not be the order of the day. The Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General and AG commissioner targeting specific House members and the Speaker is unprecedented. Certainly, in my time around the capitol I am not aware of this type of effort, ever. It does not really make for a congenial atmosphere. Passing legislation (never an easy task) will not be any less difficult. Careful of your bill authors…
The Speaker was not the only targeted House member. The effort by the Governor to root out those who defied him on his voucher initiative, was well organized and extremely well-funded. Of those that were targeted, 8 were defeated on election night and 8 were forced into a runoff. Since we don’t know exactly how much was spent, it is difficult to quantify exactly but regardless, that’s a pretty good outcome for whatever amount was spent. The final score has yet to be tallied but he and his supporters should be pleased with what they accomplished. How this will translate into the general election and actual members in the House is unknown. There are still some swing districts in Texas, although not many. Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee for US Senate against Senator Ted Cruz will have money to spend, quite a bit actually. While dollars will be spent in traditional Democratic efforts, it is safe to say that money will also be spent against Senator Cruz in these 50 to 55% Republican districts. These efforts will have an impact on some of those down ballot races and the Ds are running candidates in almost all the House seats. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Ds pick up 2 or 3 seats in the Texas House during this cycle.
All of these “unknowns” make for a very uncertain future. How to move forward, stay with incumbents who have been supporters and risk going against the Governor’s candidates and expect his retribution. Forsake long time relationships and back the Governor’s picks, knowing full well that these could be unqualified and single issue types who have no interests beyond their campaign flyers.
“Like sand through the hourglass, so are the days of our lives.” I’m quoting the soap opera not Socrates.
This too shall pass, all we have to do is swallow it.
Kyle