The new year has brought an intensity to the campaign season and an end (at least for now) of legislative Special Sessions. With the campaign season now in full swing, fundraising has become the central focus for virtually all candidates/office holders. Even those who are not on the ballot are raising money at an alarming rate, making it a bit more difficult for those who do have races to keep pace with their projected budget needs. It has become a unique situation where the biggest opponent, certainly in the fundraising realm, to many rural House Republicans is their own statewide office holders, Governor Abbott, Lt. Governor Patrick, Attorney General Paxton and in some cases Ag Commissioner Sid Miller. If it were not for the opposition support of these current office holders, many of these “targeted” House members might not even have primary opposition. Once the primary season has concluded a large percentage of these members also have general election opposition. This is not unusual in Presidential election years because of the large voter turnout, even in many of these strong Republican districts.
Over the past several days I have had the opportunity to hear from a number of incumbent candidates and those seeking open seats speaking about the current condition of their contested primary races. Probably the single theme throughout these discussions has been the onslaught of money from both in-state and out-of-state interests. When this election cycle comes to an end, the amount of money spent will no doubt reach record heights. It has always been expensive to run for election in Texas, from the geographically smallest Texas House seat up to and including our statewide federal and state offices, and this year will be no exception. While none of our state-wide Texas state government office holders (Gov, LT. Gov, AG, etc.) are up for election, one of our US Senators (Ted Cruz) is on the ballot this year and will have general election opposition in November.
The bulls eye attached to a not insignificant number of Texas Republican House members was put there because of their votes on 2 issues. Their vote to impeach current Attorney General Ken Paxton and their vote against ESAs (Education Savings Accounts) or vouchers. In some cases (not all) some rural House republicans have both targets on their back. Governor Abbott actively recruited candidates to run against members who voted against the ESA bill and is also supporting those candidates with monetary support. That level of support could be substantial. Governor Abbott is also actively campaigning for these candidates by attending local district events and providing other campaign assistance. Attorney General Ken Paxton is engaged against his impeachment foes as well. He is actively participating in local district events in support of his endorsed candidates and may be providing campaign funds. Certainly his financial supporters, some of whom are very wealthy are supporting this group of hand-picked candidates. Whether these efforts prove successful with a significant turnover in targeted members will be answered in March. If this effort can influence potential legislative action in the future out of fear of retribution is a question we won’t know until 2025.
As for campaign themes that bubble to the surface in these discussions, border security and inflation take top spots from both Republican and Democratic candidates. While these issues are typically “national” in scope, they resonate with the local constituency who seek answers from all their elected officials, whether those local electeds can impact these issues or not. Border security or immigration is clearly a federal issue usually overseen by the US House, Senate and the President. While these entities seem unable to address the issue to anyone’s satisfaction, Governor Abbott and the Texas legislature stepped into the void and have/are attempting to influence the situation. The ultimate outcome will be determined by the courts and those decisions could have lasting and significant implications. If every state is allowed to ultimately determine its own immigration policy, the havoc created would be substantial and confusing to say the least. Recently the US Supreme Court told the US Border Patrol they could remove the razor wire that was installed across the Rio Grand by members of Operation Lone Star, the Texas state border security operation. Will this set up a confrontation between those officers and the US Border Patrol? That would not seem to end well, stay tuned…
I feel staying current on the issues discussed above is vital to our future success. These political activities, while not directly impacting this association, directly impact the overall political climate in which we all work to a greater or lesser degree. While there has always been a certain level of “discord” and disagreement within the legislative process, I firmly believe that people of good character can have reasonable differences on any number of issues, the current atmosphere makes it challenging to accomplish anything, even the non-controversial. The times they are a-changing and we will all have to adapt to this new paradigm. I recently had the opportunity to visit with the staff of the WQA. They were very helpful and informative providing me with background material on past issues and concerns and activities in which they were currently working. We agreed to continue to visit and work together where it makes sense. I feel they will be a good resource for me moving forward.
Kyle