The Dog Days of Summer…
While it certainly feels like the Dog Days… I am a bit late with this update. The Dog Days officially ended on August 11th. For those of us unsure from where the phrase originates it refers to the rising of the Dog Star, Sirius which rises at about the same time as the sun in the Northern hemisphere, July 3 thru August 11th.
It is still hot in Austin though, Dog days or not. Not as hot as last year, rain in July cooled things off considerably, but hot nonetheless. I would like to say that it’s been quiet but that is not exactly correct, more the lull before the storm.
The storm after the runoff election has simply set the stage for what promises to be an interesting and turbulent legislative session. The consensus among the smattering of lobbyists I have visited with is that everyone is telling clients the same thing, “don’t expect to pass many meaningful bills.”
We still have more elections to observe, the fall general elections and the ramifications from events up through the primary and eventual runoffs have not all played themselves out. The stage is set and the actors have been chosen we just have to see the final act. The Governor was successful in his efforts to change the composition of the Texas House, it just remains to be seen if these changes are sufficient enough to pass some sort of “education savings account” or voucher by any other name.
Speaker Dade Phelan won reelection to his State House district beating David Covey by a narrow margin. While it is not assured that he will be reelected as Speaker of the Texas House, I would not bet against him. As a reminder there are 2 other Republicans who have announced their campaigns for Speaker. There could well be others who announce later this fall. To date, the effort to unseat Speaker Phelan has not bubbled to the surface for others to see. The last 4 Speakers (Craddick, Straus, Bonnen and Phelan) all won the seat in unique ways, not what one would have considered a “usual” speaker’s race, perhaps the “usual “ speakers race may not exist anymore. The Laney/Rudd type of race with clearly defined sides and months of campaigning may never happen again. At least it does not appear to be happening this time.
With the Republicans appearing unable to agree on a single candidate (at least not yet) the Democrats would appear to be ready to once again be king (or Speaker) makers. This formula has worked in the past and would appear to be available to be utilized once again. While Texas is reliably “Red” at the statewide and National level, there are some marginal Republican House districts that could be flipped with a larger than usual Democratic turnout for a potentially popular Presidential candidate. Whether Vice President Harris is that candidate or not will play out over the next few weeks. While certainly not enough to flip the Texas House, the possible increase in Democratic House seats could change the formula in the Speakers race. Worth watching.
As of this past weekend, the Speaker has hired Mike Toomey to be his chief of staff. This is a significant hire. Mike was a 3-term member of the Texas House from Houston first elected in 1982. He was chief of staff to 2 Governors (Clements, Perry) and in 2002 was an advisor to current Governor Abbott. As a lobbyist, he has represented clients on a variety of issues through the years. Mike will bring significant insight and strategic thinking to the Speaker’s office.
This addition ensures an interesting fall and beyond in the Texas Capitol. Make sure you and your staff are registered to vote. The election will be here before we know it.